Second year CSCT student, James Stephenson recently attended the 2015 Global CO2 calculator launch and had a go at calculating projected CO2 levels using his own energy and climate pathway. Here are his thoughts after attending the event.
Recently I attended the 2015 Global CO2 calculator launch, marking the release of a new open-source software. Developed by the Department of Energy and Climate Change, the software is a tool to calculate projected carbon dioxide levels according to an energy and climate pathway designed by the users. By adjusting different global variables, the user can create a “pathway” which addresses as many country sized sources/sinks of CO2 as possible.
Speakers at the launch included MPs, developers, collaborators and representatives from the industry. The development team aimed towards making a very streamlined user interface. UK's energy secretary, Ed Davey joked that the software was indeed “MP proof”. I got the opportunity to use it myself and I certainly agree that it is very intuitive and does not take long to get to grips with. The variables are organised into a number of categories (technology and fuels, lifestyle, land and food, demographics) and sub categories such as food under “lifestyle” and transport under “technologies and fuels”. Adjusting each variable is performed using sliders. Rather than expecting users to quote exact numbers for their plan, the variables are set between 1 and 4, representing an effort level from “minimal abatement” to “extremely ambitious” respectively. An example quantitative figure is given for each effort level to rid the subjectivity of what “extremely ambitious” actually means. As each variable is adjusted the life cycle calculations are performed in a downloadable spreadsheet and outputs are changed respectively.
The calculator is expected to be used in the Paris 2015 climate change conference. The tool may be used to facilitate discussions and as a means to test ideas with numerical data, which will prove invaluable in many otherwise hand-wavey discussions. Global CO2 levels up to and beyond 2050 are displayed in one output, but there are countless other data outputs available from predicted changes in precipitation to car ownership. By using the tool you will find it is indeed possible to avoid a 2 degree increase in temperature, however it will take a large effort in a number of different areas. An individual aspect does not have a very significant impact upon CO2 levels. In reality economic constraints affect policy decisions concerning climate change, therefore the addition of cost outputs to the calculator will help this tool become even more useful.
A representative from the multi-disciplinary consulting company, Mott Macdonald discussed how the tool can be used by businesses. The calculator may help a business align themselves with energy policies and predict technology trends to evolve according to change. This tool may also be used to open dialogue with general members of the public as a way to engage and educate about factors causing climate change and their respective significance.
After attending this launch I was of course excited to use the calculator. Therefore I decided to use the tool to see if I have a realistic understanding of what it will take to stay below a 2 degrees global temperature raise. I made my own plan with the intention of staying below 2 Celsius increase whilst minimising the cost in doing this. I assumed the world population will increase without restriction and that more people will shift towards a consumerist lifestyle using the UN predictions for consumption variables in the calculator. Whilst I am not keen on the idea of a growing population and an ever more consumerist society, I feel pessimistic about controlling these parameters. I then focussed my efforts as follows:
- Extremely ambitious efforts towards improving the efficiency of technologies/fuels/manufacturing/vehicles
- Extremely ambitious efforts towards minimising waste in the food industry and improving crop yields. Also moving towards high density farming (less space for cattle).
- Allowing a vast amount of land to become reforested, and trying to stop society from becoming too urbanised.
- A modest effort towards carbon capture and storage
- Shifting towards a virtually fossil fuel free society
- Investing very heavily in nuclear energy
- Very ambitious efforts towards solar energy and focussing less of other renewables
- Ensuring there is a large energy storage capacity.
Personally I feel industry and government are most likely to be able to combat climate change. Relying on people committing towards severe lifestyle changes is perhaps naïve, unless it is motivated elsewhere, through subsides for example.
Unfortunately whilst my plan has managed to keep global temperatures below a 2 degrees raise, it is a very expensive plan. It is in fact more expensive than any of the example pathways. Potentially because I assumed that it would be possible to offset the emissions caused by ever increasing consumerism though efficiency improvements.
This simple exercise showed me how my ideas were flawed and through this I can make adjustments to my plan, and my way of thinking. Potentially I should not assume lifestyle changes are impossible? This just highlights how the calculator can help educate us and help open informed discussion. Hopefully the calculator will be used in December and will help towards the formulation of a new climate action plan. Use the global calculator and design your own pathway.
James is part of CSCT cohort '13, researching graphene-based electronics with Dr Alain Nogaret (physics) and Dr Andrew Johnson (chemistry).
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