{"id":6822,"date":"2016-11-15T08:08:37","date_gmt":"2016-11-15T08:08:37","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/edswahs\/?p=6822"},"modified":"2016-11-15T08:08:37","modified_gmt":"2016-11-15T08:08:37","slug":"late-warnings-from-unep","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/edswahs\/2016\/11\/15\/late-warnings-from-unep\/","title":{"rendered":"Late warnings from UNEP"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>UNEP's emissions gap <a href=\"http:\/\/web.unep.org\/emissionsgap\/\">report<\/a> (2016) makes for uneasy reading, but is probably a necessary counter to all the over-positivity that has surrounded the recent 'agreement' of the Paris Agreement. \u00a0The report calls for less complacency all round. \u00a0Here's the start of the summary:<\/p>\n<p>The strengthened long-term objectives\u00a0of the Paris Agreement require even\u00a0stronger actions than previously\u00a0identified, calling for accelerated efforts\u00a0pre-2020, as well as increasing the\u00a0ambition of the Nationally Determined\u00a0Contributions.\u00a0The Paris Agreement has very specific language about the\u00a0long-term goals and how to get there, including:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<ul>\n<li>A long-term goal of keeping the increase in global\u00a0average temperature to well below 2 degrees Celsius\u00a0(\u00b0C) above pre-industrial levels.<\/li>\n<li>An aim to limit the temperature increase to 1.5\u00b0C, as\u00a0this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts\u00a0of climate change.<\/li>\n<li>The need for global emissions to peak as soon as\u00a0possible, followed by a rapid decline \u2013 recognising\u00a0that this will take longer for developing countries.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Compared to the 2\u00b0C goal that was the reference point of\u00a0earlier Emissions Gap Reports, these new objectives require\u00a0stronger short-term action and deeper cuts in the medium\u00a0and longer term, as the remaining carbon dioxide budget\u00a0is now considerably lower. Against the background of the\u00a0large emissions gap that was identified in previous reports,\u00a0this further amplifies the need for ambitious early action\u00a0that accelerates and strengthens the Nationally Determined\u00a0Contributions of countries. \u00a0Enhanced pre-2020 and pre-2030 action will reduce the\u00a0so-called transitional challenges associated with the\u00a0necessary shift in emissions pathways, and:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<ul>\n<li>Reduce the lock-in of carbon and energy intensive\u00a0infrastructure in society and the energy system,\u00a0encourage the rapid deployment of state of the\u00a0art technologies, and spur near-term learning and\u00a0development of technologies that will be essential in\u00a0the long term.<\/li>\n<li>Reduce the overall costs and economic challenges\u00a0during the transitional period, for example, in terms\u00a0of upscaling energy investments.<\/li>\n<li>Reduce future dependence on unproven technologies,\u00a0including negative emissions technologies, and\u00a0increase the options to achieve stringent emission\u00a0reductions.<\/li>\n<li>Reduce climate risks, for example, by reducing the\u00a0pace of the global temperature increase.<\/li>\n<li>Realise immediate co-benefits through enhanced\u00a0early action on climate change mitigation, such\u00a0as improved public health as a result of lower air\u00a0pollution, improved energy security, and reduced\u00a0crop yield losses.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Additional early action will be essential to keeping the door\u00a0open to limit warming to below 1.5\u00b0C by 2100.<\/p>\n<p>.....................<\/p>\n<p>These headline statements caught my gloomy eye:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Collectively, members of the G20 are on a\u00a0likely track to meet their Cancun Pledges\u00a0for 2020, but these pledges do not deliver\u00a0the necessary early emission reductions.<\/li>\n<li>Pathways for staying well below 2 and\u00a01.5\u00b0C require deep emission reductions\u00a0after, and preferably also before, 2020\u00a0and lower levels of emissions in 2030\u00a0than earlier assessed 2\u00b0C pathways.<\/li>\n<li>The emissions gap for 2030 is 12 to 14\u00a0GtCO2e compared with 2\u00b0C scenarios, for\u00a01.5\u00b0C the gap is three GtCO2e larger. Even\u00a0if fully implemented, the unconditional\u00a0Intended Nationally Determined Contributions\u00a0are only consistent with staying\u00a0below an increase in temperature of 3.2\u00b0C\u00a0by 2100 and 3.0\u00b0C, if conditional Intended\u00a0Nationally Determined Contributions are\u00a0included.<\/li>\n<li>The Paris Agreement defines the\u00a0Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) on\u00a0climate change. Making the right choices\u00a0in implementing all goals will be crucial to\u00a0achieving the Paris Agreement objectives\u00a0and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable\u00a0Development.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>And so on ...<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>UNEP's emissions gap report (2016) makes for uneasy reading, but is probably a necessary counter to all the over-positivity that has surrounded the recent 'agreement' of the Paris Agreement. \u00a0The report calls for less complacency all round. \u00a0Here's the start...<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":237,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[2,3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6822","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-comment","category-new-publications"],"acf":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/edswahs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6822","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/edswahs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/edswahs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/edswahs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/237"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/edswahs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6822"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/edswahs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6822\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/edswahs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6822"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/edswahs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6822"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/edswahs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6822"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}