{"id":7149,"date":"2018-01-10T07:46:58","date_gmt":"2018-01-10T07:46:58","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/edswahs\/?p=7149"},"modified":"2018-01-10T07:46:58","modified_gmt":"2018-01-10T07:46:58","slug":"new-life-in-paris","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/edswahs\/2018\/01\/10\/new-life-in-paris\/","title":{"rendered":"New life in Paris"},"content":{"rendered":"

I was surprised at the positive tone of the Economist's December 14th article<\/a>:\u00a0New life for the Paris climate deal \u2013 A\u00a0flurry of meetings should help curb greenhouse-gas emissions. But the global agreement is still essential. \u00a0<\/em> I felt like that\u00a0because of how gloomy the paper had been a couple of weeks earlier about the chances of getting enough CO2 out of the atmosphere to limit climate change and keep the temperature rise to ~1.5 degrees above historic levels. \u00a0As the paper noted, because we are already at +1.0 degrees \u00b1x (where x might be around 25%) and the excess carbon in the system will just keep adding to that, it's not just a question of stopping adding carbon, but of removing some of what's already there. \u00a0We have no idea how to do that.<\/p>\n

There were, of course new pledges. \u00a0The Economist said that these, and ...<\/p>\n

\"the pomp, were intended to breathe new life into the Paris deal. \u00a0America\u2019s planned departure did not strike it a mortal blow, as some greens feared it would. It may even have nudged the last two holdouts, Nicaragua and Syria, to sign up in November. \u00a0But the pledges made so far are inadequate, and many are conditional on other countries keeping their side of the bargain. \u00a0Fresh momentum is sorely needed.\"<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The paper remains hopeful despite writing this:<\/p>\n

\"This year\u2019s \u201cEmissions Gap\u201d report from the UN, published in October, shows that the first set of climate pledges submitted by 164 countries corresponds to barely a third of the cut in emissions needed to keep warming below 2\u00b0C (see chart). \u00a0Studies suggest that these \u201cnationally determined contributions\u201d (NDCs) would probably result in temperatures 2.9-3.4\u00b0C higher than in pre-industrial times\u2014and that only if they are fully implemented, which seems unlikely.\"<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

In order to get a lot of governments on board, the Paris Agreement was vague about how its goal was to be reached. \u00a0For example, by 2018, countries are supposed to agree how to [i] calculate, [ii] review and [iii] increase their NDCs. \u00a0The Economist noted that:<\/p>\n

\"Reaching consensus on what counts as a reduction in emissions, and who should monitor progress, will be delicate, admits Patricia Espinosa, the head of the UN climate secretariat. \u00a0In Bonn (at CIP23), striking a tentative agreement on something as basic as deciding what to discuss during the coming year counted as a coup.\"<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

To add to the gloom, COP24 will be in Poland in the heart of the coal district. \u00a0This is how the article ended:<\/p>\n

\"Don\u2019t forget Paris<\/p>\n

But for all the importance of subnational green efforts, the UN climate process is still essential. It is the only mechanism available for chivvying stragglers to do more. And if global warming is to be kept within reasonable bounds, action will be needed not just by the most committed, but also from those currently doing little or nothing. The Paris deal\u2019s voluntary, flexible nature means that it is national pledges, backed by legislation, that collectively add up to global climate governance. Mr Macron\u2019s summit can be judged a success if it reminds the world of this fact.\"<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

As I said at the outset, I was surprised by the positive tone of all this. \u00a0For a contrary view, go here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

I was surprised at the positive tone of the Economist's December 14th article:\u00a0New life for the Paris climate deal \u2013 A\u00a0flurry of meetings should help curb greenhouse-gas emissions. But the global agreement is still essential. \u00a0 I felt like that\u00a0because...<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":237,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[2,4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7149","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-comment","category-news-and-updates"],"acf":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/edswahs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7149","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/edswahs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/edswahs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/edswahs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/237"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/edswahs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7149"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/edswahs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7149\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/edswahs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7149"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/edswahs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7149"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/edswahs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7149"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}