{"id":8421,"date":"2023-09-22T08:00:21","date_gmt":"2023-09-22T08:00:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/edswahs\/?p=8421"},"modified":"2023-09-22T08:00:21","modified_gmt":"2023-09-22T08:00:21","slug":"2030-and-all-that-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/edswahs\/2023\/09\/22\/2030-and-all-that-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2030 and all that"},"content":{"rendered":"

A while back one of our many recent prime ministers decided \u2013 pretty much on a whim \u2013 to bring the date forward when petrol \/ diesel cars could no longer be sold in the UK. \u00a0Rather than select 2035 which was the date chosen by the EU, they went for 2030. \u00a0This was, presumably to show the \u20acurocrats and the Earth's green glitterati that we were more ambitious, committed, zealous and dedicated than they were. \u00a0Good international playground politics no doubt, but questionable domestically.<\/p>\n

In addition, the Zero Emissions Vehicle (ZEV) mandate was introduced to require car manufacturers to increase the proportion of EVs that they sold year by year, with hefty fines if they did not do this. \u00a0This was a novel twin approach; not so much carrot and stick as stick and stick.<\/p>\n

Now one of the sticks has been taken away in the PM's announcement on Wednesday that the deadline for selling new cars has been put back to 2035. \u00a0It has been amusing to see how many of the usually pro-\u20acU commentariat have bemoaned this as a betrayal \u2013 with a lot of this coming before the speech was even made. \u00a0None of them seem to criticise the \u20acU Commission for a 2035 deadline which has recently been watered down in an attempt to save the German car giants from Chinese imports, but that's a matter for their conscience. \u00a0Government criticised for adopting \u20acU Commission targets. \u00a0What is the world coming to?<\/p>\n

The stick to beat the car manufacturers \u2013 the ZEV \u2013 is still in place, however, which will mean that the number of petrol \/ diesel vehicles available to buy will drop as we approach 2030 and affect what can be bought. \u00a0The BBC has<\/a> the details but the gist is:<\/p>\n

From January, just over a fifth of vehicles sold must be electric, with the target expected to hit 80% by 2030. \u00a0If they fail to hit the target, manufacturers will either face fines of \u00a315,000 per vehicle, or have to buy a surplus credit from a company that has sold lots of electric vehicles.<\/p>\n

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Ian Plummer, commercial director of Auto Trader, said that to meet targets, car makers would be forced to explore ways to attract buyers, adding \"it's likely price will need to play a big part in this [with] Electric vehicles carry[ing] a hefty price premium, so if prices come down, they'll suddenly become a far more attractive proposition for a greater pool of car buyers.\"<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Motor industry analyst Philip Nothard, insight and strategy director at Cox Automotive, told the BBC the targets for electric car sales was \"arguably a greater influence\" on the market than delaying the ban on new internal combustion engine vehicles. \u00a0He added that because many carmakers were already committed to hybrid and electric-only ranges based on the government's previous 2030 policy, greener vehicles might be more attractive to buyers in terms of price because consumers would face a \"limited choice\" of new petrol and diesel cars, causing the prices of those vehicles to rise.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Motor industry sources said the impact of the ban being delayed was expected to be limited. They said the targets on electric car sales meant it was likely that only a fifth of new cars sold by 2030 would be wholly petrol or diesel, with many drivers opting for hybrids.<\/p>\n

As I suspected, perhaps, one stick will prove quite sufficient to promote the transition to EVs. \u00a0Meanwhile, the poor will have a modicum of protection against enforced price hikes.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

What's not to like?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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