{"id":8589,"date":"2024-05-24T08:13:06","date_gmt":"2024-05-24T08:13:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/edswahs\/?p=8589"},"modified":"2024-05-24T08:13:06","modified_gmt":"2024-05-24T08:13:06","slug":"tony-blair-and-net-zero","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/edswahs\/2024\/05\/24\/tony-blair-and-net-zero\/","title":{"rendered":"Tony Blair and Net Zero"},"content":{"rendered":"

Back in January<\/a> I confessed to having become something of a net zero sceptic. \u00a0I wrote:<\/p>\n

\"I am unconvinced that the present (and next) UK government policies and plans around cutting greenhouse gas emissions will be effective or cost-effective. \u00a0I also suspect that they are ill-focused on the problem. \u00a0I also consider that they carry considerable risk to the proper relationship between parliament and people which relies on mutual respect. \u00a0... My scepticism includes the worry that a lot of money will be spent to no great effect, with the opportunity costs incurred therein being heavy.\"<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

And now I find that the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change<\/a>, in a new report: Reimagining the UK\u2019s Net-Zero Strategy<\/em>, not only agrees, but is way ahead of me \u2013 well they do have more resources. \u00a0The report is a useful primer for those new to the UK's Net Zero strategy, the successes we have had so far (eg, the first G7 country to reduce emissions by 50 per cent on 1990 levels), and the daunting challenges we have set ourselves by 2035, 2040 and 2050 (eg to fully decarbonise Britain\u2019s electricity grid by 2030 \u2013 a policy the Labour Party seems to have drifted into \u2013 even doing this by 2035 requires us to add 3.5 times more generation capacity than has been added since 2010 and doubling the transmission capacity of the electricity grid). \u00a0The heroic demands of the UK's 6th carbon budget are set out at the end of this post. \u00a0The Blair Institute had already part-explored these issues in the paper Powering the Future of Britain.<\/a><\/i><\/p>\n

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The report addresses our internal and global responsibilities and warns that too great a focus on the former inhibits effective work on the latter, in particular helping economically developing countries try to make non-carbon progress:<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\"There are, broadly speaking, two core challenges that require a refreshed net-zero strategy: the domestic political and economic challenge associated with meeting the tough targets ahead with current policy and technology, and the challenge of tackling increasing global emissions, particularly in developing countries, which the domestic targets don\u2019t address.\"<\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n
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But for many, it still seems that the UK can best act as a beacon to the world by staying cold and donning expensive hair shirts (\"shivering is good\" say Green Activists); that is, atoning physically for our original carbon sinning in inventing the industrial revolution. \u00a0The Institute's reports suggests that there are more practical things that can be done to help ourselves and the world.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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I could go on at length, but will make do with one last quote:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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\"Currently, the politicisation of the net-zero target in the UK has resulted in an approach that is more focused on political gesturing and setting an increasing number of ambitious sectoral and technology-specific targets than delivery on the ground. The ambition to reach net zero has not resulted in policies that facilitate building the infrastructure or investing in the technology required to meet the goal.\"<\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Just so. \u00a0We can only hope that the coming election will bring less of this and more realism. \u00a0Like me, however, you probably doubt it.<\/p>\n

...................................................<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

The 6th Carbon Budget 2033 to 2037<\/strong><\/div>\n
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    \n
  • \n

    The CCC pathway assumes the phase-out of unabated fossil fuels in the electricity grid by 2035. This will involve adding 3.5 times more generation capacity than has been added since 2010 and doubling the transmission capacity of the electricity grid.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  • \n

    For buildings, the CCC pathway requires upgrading all buildings to energy-performance-certificate standards (EPC) over the next 10 to 15 years and for no new gas boilers to be sold after 2033. This means that by 2030, heat-pump sales must reach just over 1 million per year in new and existing homes. At present, the total market for boiler installations is 1.8 million annually. This involves selling almost 17 times more heat pumps than were sold in 2023, according to the Heat Pump Association.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  • \n

    Surface-transport emissions need to reduce by around 70 per cent by 2035. This assumes a ban on new internal-combustion-engine vehicle sales by 2032 as well as a 9 per cent reduction in car miles travelled by 2035. Commercial-transport zero-emission vehicles are to make up 96 per cent of new sales of heavy-goods vehicles, buses and coaches by 2035 and almost 100 per cent by 2040.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  • \n

    For aviation, the CCC pathway assumes a gradual reduction in emissions through demand management, improvements in efficiency and a modest but increasing share of sustainable aviation fuels, including through no net expansion of UK airport capacity. Non-CO2 global-warming impacts from aviation such as contrails are not included in carbon-budget accounting.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  • \n

    Manufacturing and construction emissions need to reduce by 70 per cent by 2035 compared with 2018 levels. This will involve mass migration to electrification, carbon capture and storage (CCS) and hydrogen in the late 2020s and early 2030s, as well as energy-and-resource efficiency. The CCC estimates that the cost to the Exchequer of enabling these deep decarbonisation measures in a way that protects trade-exposed subsectors would be around \u00a32 billion per year in 2030. This cost could reduce over time as policies come into force for imports, and industries are subsequently able to pass costs to consumers rather than taxpayers at large.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  • \n

    In the CCC\u2019s pathway, agriculture emissions need to decrease by 28 per cent by 2035 and net emissions from land use need to reduce by 93 per cent by 2035, compared with 2018. The CCC pathway suggests one-third of agricultural land will be freed up through changes in output and more efficient farming practices, and 21 per cent of this land is designated to sequester and reduce CO2.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  • \n

    The CCC estimates that engineered emissions removals of 58 million tonnes of carbon dioxide (MtCO2) per year are required in 2050, in addition to nature-based sinks of 39 MtCO2 per year from UK land. Removal technologies like biochar, carbon-negative cement and enhanced weathering are considered as speculative so have not been included in the CCC\u2019s scenarios.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  • \n

    The carbon budgets are set on the basis of territorial emissions, and they do not allow for international carbon credits to count towards UK emission reductions. But they do recognise that, if future developments allow credits to be applied to sustainable, verified, permanent CO2 removal in a clearly additional way, there would be a stronger case to allow them to contribute to UK targets.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Back in January I confessed to having become something of a net zero sceptic. \u00a0I wrote: \"I am unconvinced that the present (and next) UK government policies and plans around cutting greenhouse gas emissions will be effective or cost-effective. \u00a0I...<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":237,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[2,4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8589","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-comment","category-news-and-updates"],"acf":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/edswahs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8589","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/edswahs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/edswahs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/edswahs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/237"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/edswahs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8589"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/edswahs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8589\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/edswahs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8589"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/edswahs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8589"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/edswahs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8589"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}