{"id":2569,"date":"2025-01-31T10:32:25","date_gmt":"2025-01-31T10:32:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/iprblog\/?p=2569"},"modified":"2025-01-31T10:32:25","modified_gmt":"2025-01-31T10:32:25","slug":"will-labours-plan-for-growth-actually-work-two-economists-respond","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/iprblog\/2025\/01\/31\/will-labours-plan-for-growth-actually-work-two-economists-respond\/","title":{"rendered":"Will Labour\u2019s plan for growth actually work? Two economists\u00a0respond"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: https:\/\/theconversation.com\/republishing-guidelines --><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/iprblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/115\/2025\/01\/Blog-Images-114.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-2570\" src=\"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/iprblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/115\/2025\/01\/Blog-Images-114.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"576\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/iprblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/115\/2025\/01\/Blog-Images-114.png 1024w, https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/iprblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/115\/2025\/01\/Blog-Images-114-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/iprblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/115\/2025\/01\/Blog-Images-114-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/iprblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/115\/2025\/01\/Blog-Images-114-382x215.png 382w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em>The UK chancellor, Rachel Reeves, aims to accelerate economic growth but faces challenges. Her recent speech emphasized planning reforms, public investment, and airport expansion, sparking environmental concerns. Brexit-related trade barriers remain a key issue, yet were barely mentioned. Labour\u2019s pro-growth stance is promising, but execution, private investment, and regulatory reforms will determine its success.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em><a href=\"https:\/\/researchportal.bath.ac.uk\/en\/persons\/phil-tomlinson\">Phil Tomlinson<\/a> is Professor of Industrial Strategy and Co-Director Centre for Governance, Regulation and Industrial Strategy (CGR&amp;IS) at the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bath.ac.uk\/homepage\/\">University of Bath<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.birmingham.ac.uk\/staff\/profiles\/business\/bailey-david\">David Bailey<\/a> is Professor of Business Economics at <a href=\"https:\/\/www.birmingham.ac.uk\">University of Birmingham<\/a>. This article is republished from <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\">The Conversation<\/a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/will-labours-plan-for-growth-actually-work-two-economists-respond-248581\"><em>original article here.<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n<div class=\"theconversation-article-body\">\n<p>The UK chancellor Rachel Reeves says the Labour government will go \u201cfurther and faster\u201d to kick-start the British economy. Economic growth \u2013 to raise living standards and fund public services \u2013 is apparently <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/keir-starmer-rejects-tax-and-spend-so-do-labours-plans-for-economic-growth-add-up-232855\">a core mission<\/a> of this government.<\/p>\n<p>Yet since the general election last July, this growth has <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/articles\/c8r5jkv5g5po\">proved elusive<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>In fairness, the UK economy been pretty stagnant for a long time. And as Reeves <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/why-rachel-reeves-cant-seem-to-make-her-22bn-black-hole-narrative-convincing-235901\">sometimes mentions<\/a>, she arguably inherited the worst set of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.economicsobservatory.com\/whats-the-economic-inheritance-of-the-new-uk-government\">economic circumstances<\/a> since 1974.<\/p>\n<p>Nevertheless, the government has been guilty of some major own goals. The means-testing of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ageuk.org.uk\/information-advice\/money-legal\/benefits-entitlements\/winter-fuel-payment\/\">winter fuel payments<\/a> drew derision, while the public framing of a \u201cpainful\u201d budget in October 2024 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/articles\/cje39kw1281o\">dented business and consumer confidence<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>So after a difficult first six months in office, the chancellor\u2019s big speech on January 29 was an opportunity for a major economic reset. And there were some signs of encouragement.<\/p>\n<p>She reaffirmed, for example, a commitment to reforming the UK\u2019s antiquated planning laws for residential and commercial building. And there was a big emphasis on public investment, which is to rise to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.gov.uk\/government\/publications\/autumn-budget-2024\/autumn-budget-2024-html#:%7E:text=Public%20sector%20net%20investment%20will,over%20the%20next%20five%20years.\">2.6% of GDP<\/a> over this parliament, compared to the previous government\u2019s plans of 1.9%.<\/p>\n<p>Airport expansion at <a href=\"https:\/\/www.gov.uk\/government\/news\/government-backs-heathrow-expansion-to-kickstart-economic-growth\">Heathrow<\/a> (and to a lesser extent, Luton and Gatwick) aims to enhance global connectivity and increase trade and investment, especially with emerging economies.<\/p>\n<p>But those plans, which run counter to the <a href=\"https:\/\/commonslibrary.parliament.uk\/research-briefings\/cbp-9888\/\">government\u2019s net zero goals<\/a>, unsurprisingly sparked the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mirror.co.uk\/news\/uk-news\/heathrow-airports-14bn-expansion-slammed-34535565\">ire of environmental campaigners<\/a>, as well as some senior Labour MPs and party donors.<\/p>\n<p>They may also widen the UK\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tandfonline.com\/doi\/full\/10.1080\/21582041.2024.2445394\">regional inequalities<\/a>, drawing more investment and economic activity to the south-east. The same goes for the notion of building Europe\u2019s \u201cSilicon Valley\u201d between <a href=\"https:\/\/www.oxfordmail.co.uk\/news\/24893620.rachel-reeves-sets-plans-major-oxfordshire-projects\/\">Oxford and Cambridge<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>That said, some other regions may benefit from <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/live\/cg7zdme95z1t?page=2\">announcements<\/a> which included a \u00a328 million investment in Cornish Metals (for materials for solar panels and wind turbines), and \u00a363 million for advanced fuels which should bring more high-skilled jobs to areas like Teesside. There were also plans for housing and commercial redevelopment around <a href=\"https:\/\/www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk\/news\/greater-manchester-news\/rachel-reeves-says-shell-back-30888334\">Old Trafford in Manchester<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Some of these projects will form part of the government\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/the-uks-new-industrial-strategy-is-welcome-but-heres-what-is-missing-241410\">new industrial strategy<\/a>, which is expected in the spring.<\/p>\n<h2>Red tape restrictions<\/h2>\n<p>One word to look out for when that strategy is unveiled is \u201cBrexit\u201d, which continues to act as a drag on the UK\u2019s growth. Yet in her speech, while Reeves used the \u201cgrowth\u201d word more than 50 times, she mentioned Brexit just once.<\/p>\n<p>It deserves much more attention. For investment in the UK <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/54529cc8-7bf6-425c-8741-042d4eb08af0\">has been lacklustre<\/a> since the 2016 referendum, and research shows that post-Brexit <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tandfonline.com\/doi\/full\/10.1080\/21582041.2023.2192700\">red tape has hampered exports<\/a>, especially for smaller firms. Overall, the UK\u2019s exports of goods are <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/politics\/2025\/jan\/26\/i-sense-brussels-is-ready-to-be-bold-and-ambitious-hope-mixes-with-anger-on-brexits-fifth-anniversary#:%7E:text=Five%20years%20on%2C%20however%2C%20the,exports%20had%20risen%20by%201%25.\">down by 9%<\/a> since 2020, while similar economies have seen their exports rise by 1%.<\/p>\n<p>The chancellor has <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/articles\/ceql9x5rd30o#:%7E:text=The%20UK%20government%20is%20considering%20a%20far%20more,with%20European%20finance%20ministers%20to%20discuss%20the%20future.\">previously suggested<\/a> a Brexit \u201creset\u201d, and there may be <a href=\"https:\/\/ukandeu.ac.uk\/explainers\/veterinary-agreements\/\">a future a deal<\/a> to ease some Brexit agri-food trade barriers. Reeves has also floated the possibility of the UK joining a \u201cPan-Euro\u201d <a href=\"https:\/\/news.sky.com\/video\/the-chancellor-has-said-shes-happy-to-look-at-the-uk-pan-euro-mediterranean-convention-13296923\">customs zone<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Other moves which might help UK manufacturing include <a href=\"https:\/\/bills.parliament.uk\/bills\/3752\">a bill<\/a> that would allow the government to keep pace with new EU product safety regulations, and anything else which <a href=\"https:\/\/ukandeu.ac.uk\/the-brexit-bill-no-ones-talking-about\/\">avoids new administrative costs<\/a> for businesses.<\/p>\n<p>Yet despite the government perhaps adopting a more conciliatory tone with the EU, there are frustrations with the <a href=\"https:\/\/inews.co.uk\/news\/world\/keir-starmer-drop-red-lines-post-brexit-reset-3251266?srsltid=AfmBOoqoZIPk7acls2WhaVSL-Fv1jEc_d-Qhopaqb_Uyt1k3nvs37HUE\">UK\u2019s \u201cred lines\u201d<\/a>, such as a refusal to agree to a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.universityworldnews.com\/post.php?story=20240830130701748\">scheme<\/a> which would make it easier for young EU citizens to travel, work and study in the UK, and for young UK nationals to do the same in EU member states.<\/p>\n<h2>Execution<\/h2>\n<p>And while the chancellor\u2019s speech highlighted the government\u2019s long-term ambitions for growth, there was little to address current weaknesses quickly.<\/p>\n<p>For despite a change to Labour\u2019s self-imposed <a href=\"https:\/\/national.thelead.uk\/p\/labours-new-fiscal-rules-should-lead\">fiscal rules<\/a> last autumnn, the government still faces significant public borrowing constraints. This will restrict the amount of investment required to fundamentally transform public infrastructure, without major private sector support.<\/p>\n<p>And planning reforms, infrastructure projects, and new trade deals all take time and face political, legal and logistical hurdles. This will also delay growth.<\/p>\n<p>Labour\u2019s ambitions for a more pro-growth, pro-business agenda mark a positive shift, at least in tone. But actual, visible, tangible growth depends on execution. This in turn depends on private sector money, overcoming bureaucratic hurdles, and cutting the Brexit red-tape that continues to hamper trade with the EU.<\/p>\n<p>Without effective action across the board, including immediate fiscal stimulus, the chancellor\u2019s words may begin to sound a little hollow if the mission for growth soon starts to look like mission impossible.<!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: none !important;box-shadow: none !important;margin: 0 !important;max-height: 1px !important;max-width: 1px !important;min-height: 1px !important;min-width: 1px !important;opacity: 0 !important;padding: 0 !important\" src=\"https:\/\/counter.theconversation.com\/content\/248581\/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic\" alt=\"The Conversation\" width=\"1\" height=\"1\" \/><\/p>\n<p><em><span class=\"xxcontentpasted1\">All articles posted on this blog give the views of the author(s), and not the position of the IPR, nor of the University of Bath.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The UK chancellor, Rachel Reeves, aims to accelerate economic growth but faces challenges. Her recent speech emphasized planning reforms, public investment, and airport expansion, sparking environmental concerns. Brexit-related trade barriers remain a key issue, yet were barely mentioned. Labour\u2019s pro-growth...<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1742,"featured_media":2571,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[107,128,112,116,129],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2569","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-brexit","category-the-labour-market","category-economics","category-evidence-and-policymaking","category-uk-politics"],"acf":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/iprblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/115\/2025\/01\/Blog-Images-113.png","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/iprblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2569","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/iprblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/iprblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/iprblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1742"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/iprblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2569"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/iprblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2569\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/iprblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2571"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/iprblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2569"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/iprblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2569"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/iprblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2569"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}