{"id":2801,"date":"2025-10-29T10:32:07","date_gmt":"2025-10-29T10:32:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/iprblog\/?p=2801"},"modified":"2025-10-29T10:37:33","modified_gmt":"2025-10-29T10:37:33","slug":"javier-mileis-victory-in-argentinas-midterm-elections-is-also-a-win-for-trump","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/iprblog\/2025\/10\/29\/javier-mileis-victory-in-argentinas-midterm-elections-is-also-a-win-for-trump\/","title":{"rendered":"Javier Milei\u2019s victory in Argentina\u2019s midterm elections is also a win for\u00a0Trump"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Argentina\u2019s President Javier Milei has secured a decisive midterm victory, strengthening his grip on power after a turbulent first year marked by austerity and controversy. In this blog, Dr Juan Pablo Ferrero explores how Milei\u2019s win reflects rising populist politics \u2014 and how U.S. intervention turned Argentina\u2019s election into a wider geopolitical battleground.<\/em><\/p>\n

Juan Pablo Ferrero<\/a> is a Senior Lecturer in Latin American Politics at the University of Bath.<\/a> <\/em>This article is republished from The Conversation<\/a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article here<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n

Javier Milei, Argentina\u2019s self-styled anarcho-capitalist president, has secured a resounding victory in legislative midterm elections. Following a year marked by radical austerity, economic upheaval and political scandals, this outcome is nothing short of extraordinary.<\/p>\n

Milei\u2019s La Libertad Avanza coalition defied expectations<\/a> to secure more than 40% of the nationwide vote, substantially outperforming the main opposition Fuerza Patria coalition\u2019s roughly 32%. This triumph bolsters the president\u2019s legislative power and, critically, positions him as a strong contender for reelection in 2027.<\/p>\n

The elections were widely interpreted as a referendum on Milei\u2019s tenure<\/a>, which began in December 2023. His victory is a testament to his successful strategy of polarisation and his ability to present himself as the sole purveyor of hope and \u201credemption\u201d amid prolonged economic stagnation and declining real incomes.<\/p>\n

Yet the narrative of this win is also inextricably linked to a dramatic intervention by the US government to stabilise Argentina\u2019s shaky economy. This intervention transformed a local legislative contest into a global geopolitical flashpoint.<\/p>\n

Milei\u2019s first year as president was characterised by a \u201cchainsaw\u201d<\/a> approach to public spending, cutting tens of thousands of government jobs and freezing public investments. These measures were painful, contributing to business closures and job losses. But they also delivered tangible \u2013 albeit fragile \u2013 macroeconomic gains.<\/p>\n

Annual inflation, which peaked at 289% in April 2024, was brought down<\/a> to about 32% by October 2025. The country also achieved its first fiscal surplus in more than a decade. However, the more immediate electoral lifeline was the government\u2019s intense focus on managing the price of the US dollar.<\/p>\n

The longstanding instability of Argentina\u2019s own currency, the peso, coupled with frequent high inflation has created a dual system where the peso is used for daily transactions there but the dollar is preferred for savings and larger purchases, like real estate.<\/p>\n

And Milei\u2019s administration has gone to great lengths to control the exchange rate, thereby engineering a temporary but palpable sense of stability just ahead of the polls. This stability was crucial for voters battered by volatility.<\/p>\n

It also came at a high cost: a heavy reliance on Washington\u2019s financial backing. As Argentina\u2019s central bank reserves dwindled<\/a> and a currency crisis loomed, the US government \u2013 under President Donald Trump \u2013 moved with speed<\/a> to rescue the situation.<\/p>\n

A US$20 billion (\u00a315 billion) currency swap agreement between the US Treasury and Argentina\u2019s central bank was formalised on October 20. This financial assistance, which was quickly followed by an additional announced facility of up to US$20 billion sourced from private banks and sovereign funds, was undeniably timed to shore up Milei\u2019s position before the election.<\/p>\n

Trump explicitly linked the continuation of this aid to a Milei victory, warning<\/a>: \u201cIf he loses, we are not going to be generous with Argentina\u201d. Milei\u2019s win is a clear victory for his ideological ally in Washington, who championed<\/a> the financial lifeline as a strategic move to support a \u201cgreat philosophy\u201d and \u201cmake Argentina great again\u201d.<\/p>\n

The US government\u2019s overt and decisive intervention marks a shift not seen in Latin America since perhaps the cold war. It signals that Argentina, and Latin America more broadly, is back on the geopolitical chessboard.<\/p>\n

For the US, this is less about ideological affinity and more about strategic resource competition. Latin America holds vast reserves of natural resources, including critical minerals such as lithium that are essential components of the global clean energy supply chain.<\/p>\n

Washington\u2019s support for Milei is a move to challenge China\u2019s expanding<\/a> economic and political foothold in the region. It ensures that a key resource provider and trade partner remains firmly within the US orbit. Milei is, in turn, keen to facilitate American investment in key sectors such as oil, gas and mining. These sectors are all central to his economic recovery plans.<\/p>\n

A reckoning for the opposition<\/h2>\n

The election results have definitively confirmed a deep and persistent political polarisation in Argentina. The centre-left opposition\u2019s traditional strategy \u2013 waiting for the incumbent\u2019s austerity and scandals to generate discontent \u2013 failed to deliver a victory. This should force a period of fundamental soul-searching for the opposition.<\/p>\n

But, in my opinion, Milei\u2019s success is not simply the product of a \u201ccrisis of representation\u201d, where traditional parties are failing. He instead appears to be a faithful representative of a new, reactive global society. This society is deeply sceptical of institutional mediation, preferring strong executive leaders and perceived \u201cproblem solvers\u201d over consensus-based politics.<\/p>\n

Milei\u2019s radical experiment has survived its first great electoral test. His party, despite its limited base in the Argentine Congress, secured enough seats to be a formidable legislative force. This means it is now capable of upholding presidential vetoes and advancing critical tax and labour reforms.<\/p>\n

He has also set a powerful new trajectory for the country \u2013 one that is tightly bound to the geopolitical strategies of the US, its indispensable new partner. As I have argued before<\/a>, Milei\u2019s politics are here to stay in Argentina and Latin America.\"The<\/p>\n

All articles posted on this blog give the views of the author(s), and not the position of the IPR, nor of the University of Bath.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Argentina\u2019s President Javier Milei has secured a decisive midterm victory, strengthening his grip on power after a turbulent first year marked by austerity and controversy. In this blog, Dr Juan Pablo Ferrero explores how Milei\u2019s win reflects rising populist politics...<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1742,"featured_media":2802,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[108,110,133,123,125,130],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2801","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-culture-and-policy","category-democracy-and-voter-preference","category-global-politics","category-political-ideologies","category-racism-and-the-far-right","category-us-politics"],"acf":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/iprblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/115\/2025\/10\/Blog-Images-208.png","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/iprblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2801","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/iprblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/iprblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/iprblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1742"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/iprblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2801"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/iprblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2801\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/iprblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2802"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/iprblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2801"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/iprblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2801"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/iprblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2801"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}