{"id":501,"date":"2017-05-11T09:42:54","date_gmt":"2017-05-11T08:42:54","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/iprblog\/?p=501"},"modified":"2017-07-10T12:29:05","modified_gmt":"2017-07-10T11:29:05","slug":"macrons-daunting-to-do-list-unite-a-nation-form-a-government-reform-europe","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/iprblog\/2017\/05\/11\/macrons-daunting-to-do-list-unite-a-nation-form-a-government-reform-europe\/","title":{"rendered":"Macron\u2019s daunting to-do list: unite a nation, form a government, reform Europe"},"content":{"rendered":"

Dr Nick Startin<\/a>, Head of Department, PoLIS<\/a><\/p>\n

The French presidential election campaign delivered as many twists and turns as a soap opera. But it ended with an air of predictability. Emmanuel Macron<\/a> polled two thirds of votes cast compared to Marine Le Pen\u2019s one third. There was no late surge from Le Pen. Her performance in the only television debate between the two rounds illustrated how difficult it is for radical right leaders to move from being the anti-system candidate to serious contender.<\/p>\n

Le Pen<\/a> and her entourage will take some solace from the fact that she polled around 11m votes in the second-round run-off \u2013 3.4m more than in the first \u2013 but the result will nevertheless be perceived by some in the Front National inner circle as disappointing. Given the ongoing difficulties in the eurozone, France\u2019s high unemployment rate<\/a> (particularly among the under 25s), the refugee crisis, the terrorist security threat, Brexit and Donald Trump\u2019s victory in the US, the prevailing demand-side conditions could not have been more favourable for the Front National. This is, after all, a party whose whole campaign was built around the notion of a perceived cleavage between globalists (as represented by Macron) and patriots (as represented by Le Pen).<\/p>\n

Although Front National strategists such as Florian Philippot<\/a> have always had one eye on the long-term game and the possibility of victory in 2022, it\u2019s not a given that the Front National can continue to grow in electoral terms if the demand-side conditions do not remain as favourable. The party has worked tirelessly to detoxify its image over the past decade but doubts remain as to whether an historically anti-system, radical-right party is capable of positioning itself as a party of government.<\/p>\n

Govern and unite<\/strong><\/p>\n

Much will of course depend on whether Macron can heal the divisions in France that were so evident during the campaign. His first priorities will be logistical. He must choose a prime minister and seek a mandate at next month\u2019s legislative elections.<\/p>\n

Given that a majority of his voters in the second round would have preferred to back an alternative candidate, securing a majority for his fledgling movement, En Marche! (just renamed La R\u00e9publique en Marche), in the National Assembly will be far from straightforward. Macron may well be forced to reach out to sympathetic socialists and centre-right r\u00e9publicains to obtain a working majority in the lower chamber. The latter, following the defeat of candidate Fran\u00e7ois Fillon<\/a> in the first round, will be looking to re-establish themselves as the biggest party in the National Assembly.<\/p>\n

The logistical problems of obtaining a working majority to fulfil his campaign pledges will be just the start of the challenges facing Macron\u2019s administration. While his campaign (and others for that matter) have demonstrated a dilution of the traditional French left-right cleavage, the result has only served to underline the social fracture that exists in France. This is well illustrated by the distribution of the Macron vote. It\u2019s no coincidence that around nine out of ten voters backed Macron<\/a> in London and Paris. How he reaches out to those citizens who remain static in their social mobility, many of whom feel disconnected from and alienated by globalisation, will be crucial.<\/p>\n

In his manifesto, the new president emphasised educational and economic reform as a means of generating social and economic mobility. But the stark reality is that such reforms may prove difficult to implement in a country often hostile to major structural change.<\/p>\n

The European question<\/strong><\/p>\n

One of the strategic problems facing Macron, and one central to the so-called \u201cglobalist versus patriot\u201d tension, is how to pitch the European question. Although the French electorate doesn\u2019t seem ready to jettison the euro, it has become increasingly sceptical about the role of the European Union. Macron (a self-proclaimed europhile) was not scared to wrap his campaign in the European flag. He even played Beethoven\u2019s Ode to Joy (the EU anthem) as he delivered his victory speech.<\/p>\n

Le Pen has, in contrast, increasingly used opposition to the EU as a strategic driver in an attempt to widen the party\u2019s electoral base. This has been a particularly successful tactic in the north of France, where post-industrial unemployment makes it difficult for many to see economic globalisation in a positive light.<\/p>\n

How Macron deals with the European question will be crucial to the success of his presidency. He has stated that strengthening the Franco-German axis is central to his project \u2013 something which most of the electorate are likely, at least for the time being, to tolerate. However, Macron will also need to convince his doubters, including some of the 12% who either spoiled their ballot papers or failed to mark them, not to mention the quarter of the registered electorate who did not vote in the second round. To help win them over, he must demonstrate that he is prepared to fully embrace the reform agenda which the EU has often tried to dodge.<\/p>\n

Solidifying the eurozone and developing the EU\u2019s defence and security arm are obvious directions of travel but Macron will also need to demonstrate that he is prepared to visit more contentious issues if he is to keep the electorate on board. In talks with EU leaders, he shouldn\u2019t shy away from re-examining the Schengen area<\/a> and developing a more robust EU-wide response to the EU\u2019s horribly high levels of youth unemployment.<\/p>\n

And while it would take a bold French president to seek radical reform of the Common Agricultural Policy<\/a>, perhaps now is the time for boldness. France has a historic, protective stance on the CAP, but it continues to gobble up nearly 40% of the EU budget. Diverting those funds into tackling social problems in EU nation states remains something of a pipe dream.<\/p>\n

Failure to fully embrace the reform agenda within the EU could soon damage Macron\u2019s popularity ratings. France is at a crossroads. The direction it takes under Macron will have a massive baring not only on the future of the nation, but also on the future of the EU.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Dr Nick Startin, Head of Department, PoLIS The French presidential election campaign delivered as many twists and turns as a soap opera. But it ended with an air of predictability. Emmanuel Macron polled two thirds of votes cast compared to...<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":700,"featured_media":630,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":true,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[110,115],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-501","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-democracy-and-voter-preference","category-european-politics"],"acf":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/iprblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/115\/2017\/05\/shutterstock_625831715.jpg","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/iprblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/501","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/iprblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/iprblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/iprblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/700"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/iprblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=501"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/iprblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/501\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/iprblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/630"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/iprblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=501"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/iprblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=501"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/iprblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=501"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}