{"id":80,"date":"2016-03-23T12:19:10","date_gmt":"2016-03-23T12:19:10","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/iprblog\/?p=80"},"modified":"2017-08-11T14:16:13","modified_gmt":"2017-08-11T13:16:13","slug":"dr-david-moon-on-the-same-but-different-wales-and-the-debate-over-eu-membership","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/iprblog\/2016\/03\/23\/dr-david-moon-on-the-same-but-different-wales-and-the-debate-over-eu-membership\/","title":{"rendered":"Dr David Moon on: The Same, but Different: Wales and the Debate over EU Membership"},"content":{"rendered":"

Dr David Moon<\/a>, Lecturer,\u00a0 Dept of Politics, Languages & International Studies <\/a><\/p>\n

Insofar as the debate surrounding the EU referendum has noticed differing perspectives between the constituent nations that form the UK, it has almost entirely involved comparisons of Scotland and England. Specifically, it has focused on how \u201cBrexit\u201d might affect Scotland\u2019s continued membership of the UK, with the Scottish National Party (SNP) raising it as a possible precursor for a second independence referendum. Yet, the situation in Wales is also worthy of attention. Wales, in many ways, is the referendum\u2019s \u2018swing seat\u2019 \u2013 a key target for both \u2018Leave\u2019 and \u2018Remain\u2019 campaigns \u2013 and looking at the recent debate between First Minister Carwyn Jones and Nigel Farage we find a perfect illustration of the dominant rhetoric from either side.<\/p>\n

Wales: EU \u2018Swing Seat\u2019?<\/strong><\/p>\n

There has been a long running assumption that Wales, like Scotland, is generally more supportive of the EU than England. Evidence suggest that this is not the case, however, identifying a \u2018healthy\u2019 degree of Euroscepticism in the former Principality. YouGov polling in February[1] reported Ceredigion as the most \u201cEurophile\u201d part of the UK; however, out of the 17 Welsh regions where data was available, only eight leant Europhile, four leant Eurosceptic and five close to median. Positive news for the \u2018Remain\u2019 camp on balance, but nevertheless somewhat mixed. A similar picture emerges from YouGov polling between June 2015 and February 2016 showing the \u2018Remain\u2019 lead in Wales shifting from 4%, to 7%, -2% and -8%[2]. The Financial Times splashed on these figures with a prediction that \u2018Wales looks set to be the only devolved region to favour Brexit\u2019[3].<\/p>\n

Whether signalling a developing trend towards \u2018Leave\u2019 or simply flux remains to be seen. However, increasing Euroscepticism in Wales may also be identified in the rising success of the UK Independence Party (Ukip). In 2015, Ukip polled 13.6% of the overall Welsh vote, but in six constituencies it achieved around 18% or more. Claims made by Plaid Cymru leader Leanne Wood that Ukip\u2019s \u201cvalues are not the values of Wales\u201d[4] have been undermined as the Europhile \u201cParty of Wales\u201d was pushed into fourth place behind Ukip at the 2015 General Election. As my colleague Dr Cutts and I have written[5], Ukip also pose a growing problem for Labour in her valleys heartlands. Current polling predicts Nigel Farage\u2019s party will win nine seats in the forthcoming elections to the National Assembly of Wales[6]. The Assembly is Ukip\u2019s key target this May.<\/p>\n

Wales is resultantly on the frontline of the EU debate and the way that debate is being framed and argued within Wales is significant beyond Offa\u2019s Dyke. In January this year, the First Minister of Wales, Carwyn Jones, challenged Farage to a debate on the EU[7]. Studying the rhetoric of both Jones and Farage tells us a lot about how the campaign is being framed across the UK, but also the opportunities that appeals to local circumstances might provide each side.<\/p>\n

In their debate, Farage and Jones struck very different but familiar poses, each in their own ways making appeals to the Aristotelian rhetorical triad ethos, pathos and logos. The following sections break down their opening statements in line with these appeals.<\/p>\n

Logos<\/strong><\/p>\n

Appeals to logos involve the logic of an argument \u2013 cause and effect, and pointing to the evidence for your case. The first issue in both orator\u2019s arguments was thus to define the grounds of the debate. In Farage\u2019s words:<\/p>\n

\u201cThe question is:<\/p>\n

Do we wish to regain our independence as a nation state?<\/p>\n

Do we want to be free to make our own laws?<\/p>\n

Do we want our own courts to be supreme?<\/p>\n

Do we want to take back control of our borders?<\/p>\n

Do we want to be, like 200 countries around the world, a normal, self-governing nation, and live in a true democracy, where the people that we vote for, and the people that we can sack, are the ones that make our laws?<\/p>\n

Or, are we just a part of \u2026 the EU. \u2026 Namely, are we happy to be a subordinate member of a bigger club.\u201d<\/p>\n

The (rhetorical) question of whether the UK should \u2018Remain\u2019 or \u2018Leave\u2019 is thus, for Farage, not about the risk of leaving, but the poverty of staying. The burden to produce evidence is resultantly not on his side \u2013 i.e. having to demonstrate why the UK would be better off \u2018out\u2019. It is those supporting continued EU membership who have to justify how the present, unacceptable system is at all tolerable.<\/p>\n

While in Farage\u2019s rhetoric, the decision is about leaving an intolerable union to regaining the \u2018normal\u2019 freedom of currently lost sovereignty, Jones articulates it as about working together, internationally, and not fleeing into isolation. Making this case, his position as First Minister enables him to equate Wales\u2019s position in the EU with that in the UK:<\/p>\n

\u201cWales is part of two unions that provide us with stability, security and prosperity.<\/p>\n

The union of the UK and the union that is the EU.<\/p>\n

Neither one is perfect.<\/p>\n

You\u2019ve heard me talk many times about the need to change Wales\u2019s relationship with Westminster.<\/p>\n

But I will never advocate giving up and walking away.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s a saying, \u201cdecisions are made by those who turn up\u201d. If you want change you\u2019ve got to work for it, not walk away from the table.<\/p>\n

And that\u2019s what we need to do in terms of the EU.<\/p>\n

And now, more than ever, is the time to work together, nationally and internationally.\u201d<\/p>\n

The comparison between the EU and the UK is unlikely to work in England, but for Wales, far smaller than her domineering neighbour, the argument that unions bring security carries weight. Support for Welsh independence from the UK flickers around 3-6 %. Attempting to frame the two unions as somewhat analogous therefore makes sense. It also ties into the classic \u2018Remain\u2019 argument, that nations benefit from being \u201cat the table\u201d \u2013 whether Westminster or Brussels \u2013 when decisions are being made.<\/p>\n

Jones backs up this argument with hefty appeals to facts and figures:<\/p>\n

\u201c\u2026 record foreign investment has gone into Wales this year. \u2026<\/p>\n

200,000 jobs in Wales rely on European trade.<\/p>\n

Europe is our largest trading partner.<\/p>\n

43% of our trade is with EU countries.<\/p>\n

Hundreds of Welsh students study in Europe every year, many more go there to work, and thousands of families holiday there.\u2026<\/p>\n

500 companies from other EU countries have their base in Wales.\u201d<\/p>\n

Framed this way the logic of the argument is the reverse of Farage\u2019s: To leave the EU would be a huge risk \u2013 the facts show this, just as they show existing benefits. Wales is one of the main financial beneficiaries of the UK\u2019s EU membership, with many parts, since 2000, qualifying for EU Objective One<\/a> funding; scarred by a legacy of unemployment and low-wages, arguments about jobs and trade loom large.<\/p>\n

Farage, however, does not counter this line of argument with his own list of facts. Instead, he places his emphasis on the latter two rhetorical appeals: ethos and pathos.<\/p>\n

Ethos and Pathos<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ethos, refers to rhetorical appeals to the good character of the orator, and Farage constantly places himself \u2013 and thus his ethos \u2013 at the centre of his argument:<\/p>\n

\u201cI want independence.<\/p>\n

I believe we\u2019ll be better off out.<\/p>\n

I believe we can free up our five million men and women running small businesses.<\/p>\n

I believe we should make our own trade deals and stand on our own on the world stage and reengage with the Commonwealth and others \u2026<\/p>\n

And crucially, yes I do believe we should control our own borders.<\/p>\n

I think unlimited EU immigration has driven down wages and put frankly intolerable pressures on our health and education systems.<\/p>\n

I want us to have an Australian-style points system.<\/p>\n

I want immigration to be a positive topic in this country, not a negative one, but it can\u2019t be as members of a European Union.\u201d<\/p>\n

Appeals to his own ethos \u2013 as a \u2018truth-teller\u2019 who stands by his clear values \u2013 are backed up with attacks on the ethos of those who oppose leaving: They are \u201cscaremongering\u201d with hyperbolic claims that \u201cif we weren\u2019t in the EU: Trade would cease; Jobs would be lost; we\u2019d finish up somehow, living in caves.\u201d Such arguments, Farage argues, \u201care made by the same people who said if we didn\u2019t join the euro we\u2019d be ruined\u201d \u2013 people, in other words, with a history of poor judgements \u2013 and evidence that \u201cour political class don\u2019t think we\u2019re big enough, or good enough, to be in control of our own country and make our own laws.\u201d<\/p>\n

This is how Farage fights back against the list of facts and figures reeled off by pro-EU politicians \u2013 by pooh-poohing them as part of \u2018Project Fear\u2019, parroted by untrustworthy politicos, and talking down the nation and its people. Rather than evidence to take into account, Jones\u2019s list of business and jobs figures becomes a list of threats, doom and gloom. All of this is in supposed contrast to Farage, whose message is that of the positive patriot, who places himself at the head of his people: \u201cI believe we are big enough, and strong enough, and good enough, and I want you to grab this historic opportunity to take back control of our own lives.\u201d In this, Farage appeals to pathos \u2013 to emotion \u2013 specifically related to national pride and drive.<\/p>\n

Since Farage places so much emphasis in his argument upon his own character, it makes sense that opponents seek to undermine this and Jones sought to promote his own positive ethos as First Minister while casting aspersions on his opponent:<\/p>\n

\u201cAs First Minister of Wales I\u2019m here to tell you what this decision really means for our country.<\/p>\n

And that starts with an admission.<\/p>\n

There won\u2019t always be easy answers to complicated questions.<\/p>\n

In fact, if a politician ever tells you there\u2019s an easy answer to a complicated question they\u2019re pulling the wool over your eyes.<\/p>\n

Because this is a serious debate about our future.\u201d<\/p>\n

As framed by Jones, the debate thus came down to a distinction between his honesty as the Welsh people\u2019s elected (and generally popular[8]) leader, compared to the deliberate oversimplifications and lack of seriousness of Farage\u2019s points. The facts of the matter \u2013 the logos of the argument \u2013 do matter; the complexity is real, and rather than fearmongering, it is responsible to recognise and warn of dangers that could have negative consequences for the nation. Like Farage, Jones also makes appeals to pathos \u2013 to the character of the nation, tying it to the referendum vote:<\/p>\n

\u201cA vote in the referendum to stay in would be the vote of a confident nation.<\/p>\n

A country that is comfortable with our place in the world.<\/p>\n

A country that still believes that we have a role to play on the international stage.<\/p>\n

And I believe that Wales is that confident country.\u201d<\/p>\n

Conclusion<\/strong><\/p>\n

Where Wales goes, so goes the UK? It is too soon to tell, but any evidence that the Eurosceptic side is winning in Wales should be of huge concern to the \u2018Remain\u2019 campaign. In the debate itself, so far, the rhetorical battle-lines have been familiar. On one side, \u201cBrexit\u201d it is a dangerous jump into the unknown, unsecured and isolated. On the other, it is an escape from an intolerable situation into greater freedom and thus security. Those who argue to \u2018Leave\u2019 are either positive patriots, or simplifying, backwards-looking hucksters; and those who argue to \u2018Remain\u2019 are either fear mongers talking the nation down, or serious and honest individuals with the facts on their side.<\/p>\n

At the end of the day, Britain\u2019s vote will be determined not on the basis of a cool-headed collective appraisal of the details in all their complexity. It will be the rhetorical ability of both sides to frame the debate around their preferred interpretation; to convince observers of the logos of their argument, the ethos of its advocates, and tap into the pathos of the electorate.<\/p>\n

This blog post is part of a new IPR Series \u2013 all related to the BREXIT debate and the EU Referendum. This collection of commissioned blog posts\u00a0 will be published as an IPR Policy Brief in May 2016. Sign up to the IPR blog to get the latest blog posts, or to our mailing list to receive invitations to our events and copies of our Policy Briefs.<\/em><\/p>\n

[1] https:\/\/yougov.co.uk\/news\/2016\/02\/28\/eurosceptic-map-britain\/
\n[2] http:\/\/blogs.cardiff.ac.uk\/electionsinwales\/2016\/02\/23\/all-welsh-eu-referendum-polls-so-far\/
\n[3] http:\/\/www.ft.com\/cms\/s\/0\/2aa5a1fa-d64e-11e5-829b-8564e7528e54.html
\n[4] http:\/\/www.walesonline.co.uk\/news\/wales-news\/plaid-cymru-leader-leanne-wood-6789219
\n[5] https:\/\/www.opendemocracy.net\/ourkingdom\/david-cutts-david-s-moon\/why-rise-of-ukip-is-significant-threat-to-welsh-labour
\n[6] http:\/\/blogs.cardiff.ac.uk\/electionsinwales\/2016\/02\/15\/1323\/
\n[7] https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=fRwkh9o5gk0
\n[8] http:\/\/blogs.cardiff.ac.uk\/electionsinwales\/2016\/02\/16\/ratings-of-the-party-leaders-in-wales\/<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Dr David Moon, Lecturer,\u00a0 Dept of Politics, Languages & International Studies Insofar as the debate surrounding the EU referendum has noticed differing perspectives between the constituent nations that form the UK, it has almost entirely involved comparisons of Scotland and...<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":700,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":true,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[107,123,129],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-80","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-brexit","category-political-ideologies","category-uk-politics"],"acf":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/iprblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/80","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/iprblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/iprblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/iprblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/700"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/iprblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=80"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/iprblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/80\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/iprblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=80"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/iprblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=80"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/iprblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=80"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}