{"id":193,"date":"2016-12-15T14:02:20","date_gmt":"2016-12-15T14:02:20","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/water\/?p=193"},"modified":"2016-12-15T14:05:23","modified_gmt":"2016-12-15T14:05:23","slug":"assessing-the-element-of-surprise-of-record-breaking-flood-events","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/water\/2016\/12\/15\/assessing-the-element-of-surprise-of-record-breaking-flood-events\/","title":{"rendered":"Assessing the element of surprise of record-breaking flood events"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>This month WIRC @ Bath is exploring the breadth of water research being undertaken at the University of Bath.<\/p>\n<p>Title: Assessing the element of surprise of record-breaking flood events<\/p>\n<p>Speaker: Dr Thomas Kjeldsen<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/water\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/85\/2016\/12\/Kjeldsen-T-28896-0090.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-194\" src=\"http:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/water\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/85\/2016\/12\/Kjeldsen-T-28896-0090-200x300.jpg\" alt=\"28896 Dr Thomas Kjeldsen. Dept of Architecture and Civil Engineering. Faculty of Engineering Staff Portraits 3 Feb 2016. Client: Beth Jones - Faculty of Engineering\" width=\"200\" height=\"300\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/water\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/85\/2016\/12\/Kjeldsen-T-28896-0090-200x300.jpg 200w, https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/water\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/85\/2016\/12\/Kjeldsen-T-28896-0090-768x1152.jpg 768w, https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/water\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/85\/2016\/12\/Kjeldsen-T-28896-0090-683x1024.jpg 683w, https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/water\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/85\/2016\/12\/Kjeldsen-T-28896-0090.jpg 1500w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 200px) 100vw, 200px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>When: Thursday 15 December 2016 at 1.15pm<\/p>\n<p>Where: Room 3.6, Chancellors' Building, University of Bath<\/p>\n<p>Abstract: The occurrence of record-breaking flood events continuous to cause damage and disruption despite significant investments in flood defences, suggesting that these events are in some sense surprising.\u00a0 This study develops a new statistical test to help assess if a flood event can be considered surprising or not.\u00a0 The test statistic is derived from annual maximum series (AMS) of extreme events, and Monte Carlo simulations were used to derive critical values for a range of significance levels based on a Generalized Logistic distribution.\u00a0 The method is tested on a national dataset of past events from the United Kingdom, and is found to correctly identify recent large event that have been identified elsewhere as causing a significant change in UK flood management policy.\u00a0 No temporal trend in the frequency or magnitude of surprising events was identified, and no link could be established between the occurrences of surprising events and large-scale drivers.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This month WIRC @ Bath is exploring the breadth of water research being undertaken at the University of Bath. Title: Assessing the element of surprise of record-breaking flood events Speaker: Dr Thomas Kjeldsen When: Thursday 15 December 2016 at 1.15pm...<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":694,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[8,12],"tags":[124,102,81,96,15],"class_list":["post-193","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-weir","category-wirc","tag-flood","tag-thomas-kjeldsen","tag-water-colloquium","tag-weir","tag-wirc-bath"],"acf":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/water\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/193","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/water\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/water\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/water\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/694"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/water\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=193"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/water\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/193\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/water\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=193"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/water\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=193"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bath.ac.uk\/water\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=193"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}