Dr Kaitlin Senk, Lecturer in the Department of Politics, Languages and International Studies, University of Bath, discusses the 2026 midterms.
Sinking approval ratings for President Trump, Democratic victories in the November 2025 off-year elections and a mass exodus of Republicans from Congress serve as a harbinger for the 2026 US midterm elections. These events indicate that Trump is losing support among his voter base and with rank-and-file party members, highlighting growing divisions within the Republican party.
Historical data indicate that Democrats will have an advantage in the upcoming midterm elections as the party out of power tends to gain legislative seats. These growing divisions in the Republican party may further bolster Democratic efforts to secure a majority in the House of Representatives next November.
Plummeting poll numbers
Trump’s 2024 electoral victory was largely driven by voters who both saw the economy as a top priority and had concerns over the country’s economic performance. Many voters (68% of the electorate) were dissatisfied with the state of the economy and Trump won 70% of these voters (versus 28% for Democratic candidate Kamala Harris). What’s more, the economy was a top issue for voters (with 32% of the electorate rating it the most important issue) and Trump won 80% of these voters (19% for Harris).
Economic issues and cost of living concerns drove a broad coalition of Republican and independent voters to cast their ballot for Trump in 2024. But more recent polling numbers indicate that support for the President among these voters has eroded over the course of his second term.
In November 2025, Trump’s approval ratings were 84% among Republicans and 25% among independents, down seven and eight percentage points respectively compared with the previous month. These figures are Trump’s lowest from Republicans this term and from independents across both terms. Polling data indicate that Trump is losing support among other key demographics that helped him to victory in the 2024 election too, including non-college educated voters and white voters, etc. Overall, Trump’s approval across the electorate has fallen to 36% approval, the lowest point in his second term.
This dissatisfaction is driven largely by Trump’s handling of key policy issues. In particular, approval of his handling of the economy has fallen six points since the start of his term in February, with only 36% of voters viewing his leadership on the economy favourably (81% among Republicans, 28% among independents). His approval rating on cost of living issues has plummeted to 26% among the electorate.
Trump campaigned on promises to address voter concerns on inflation and affordability. While these economic promises fuelled his electoral victory in 2024, declining approval rates indicate an erosion of support among the very groups of voters who helped to elect Trump to office, as well on the policy issues once seen as his electoral strength.
2025 elections: Democrats win key races and voters
The November 2025 election results mirror this pattern of declining support from Trump’s 2024 election coalition. These off-year elections featured a range of Democratic candidates across the ideological spectrum. Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial candidates, Abigail Spanberger and Mikie Sherrill, represent a more moderate wing of the Democratic party, while New York City mayoral candidate, Zohran Mamdani, comes from the Democratic Socialist wing. All three candidates campaigned on issues of affordability and won their respective elections.
Spanberger and Sherrill in particular peeled away voters from key demographics that supported Trump in 2024. Both candidates won majorities of independent and moderate voters, as well as non-white voters who turned out for Trump in the presidential election. Although not an electoral victory, Democrat Aftyn Behn came within a nine-point margin in a special election for a congressional seat in a Tennessee district that Republicans won by more than 20 points in 2024. These patterns indicate that Trump’s declining approval ratings translate to Democratic electoral victories as disenchanted voters move away from the President’s party.
Finally, Trump’s net approval ratings have reached negative numbers across all seven swing states: -12% in Arizona, -13% in Pennsylvania, -15% in Michigan and Nevada, -14% in Georgia, -11% in Wisconsin, and -8% in North Carolina. While Trump won these key battlegrounds in the 2024 election, negative approval ratings could indicate difficult midterm elections for vulnerable House members, particularly in these states, next year.
House Republicans: Divisions and retirements
Divisions within the Republican party in Congress indicate that Trump may be losing the support of his party base, in addition to voters. Cracks have emerged over the Epstein Files Transparency Act, which mandates that the Department of Justice release files related to the Jeffery Epstein case.
Initially, four Republican House members, including Marjorie Taylor Greene, voted alongside Democratic members to pass a discharge petition that forced a chamber-wide vote on the bill. The bill was later passed in the House by a nearly unanimous vote (427-1) and unanimously in the Senate.
Originally, Trump had pressured Republicans to vote against the bill but later changed course. Although the President altered his position, this vote represents an initial break with his party in Congress. Even Republican voters are split on this issue with 44% of the party approving of Trump’s handling of it and 31% disapproving.
Disagreements over this bill, and other policy issues, between Marjorie Taylor Greene and Trump culminated in a public feud between the former allies. Trump has supported a primary challenge against Greene in the 2026 midterms, while Greene has officially resigned from her position in Congress – potentially a watershed moment for Republicans exiting Congress.
At the time of writing, 50 members of the House of Representatives have announced that they will not be seeking re-election, including 20 Democrats and 30 Republicans. Republican retirements and resignations are exceeding those of Democrats at a time when the party is divided on many policy issues and the current House Republican margin remains narrow (219-213).
A similar pattern emerged before the 2018 midterms during Trump’s first term where 34 Republicans decided not to run for re-election in the House, compared with only 18 Democrats. Again in 2022, Republicans won a majority in the House, after 31 Democrats had retired before the midterm election compared with 18 Republicans. Historically, parties with more retirements and resignations from the House tend to lose their majority.
While some of the Republicans not seeking re-election to the House may have ambitions for higher office, many others cite concerns over political violence and incivility within the party as reasons for leaving their posts. If more members decide to follow suit, these departures will likely occur between now and the upcoming holiday period.
2026 midterm elections
The party that controls the White House often loses seats and, potentially, majorities in Congress during the midterm elections. In the November 2026 midterms, Republicans may face greater disadvantages as voters who once supported the President are now disenchanted with his leadership on the economy. In addition, rank-and-file party members in the House are divided over policy issues, with many Republicans opting to not seek re-election in the future. This combination of factors may point toward Democratic success in the upcoming midterms, although these elections are just under a year away and much can change in the interim.
All articles posted on this blog give the views of the author(s), and not the position of the IPR, nor of the University of Bath.
