In a recent article for the Guardian, the leader of the UK's parliamentary opposition, Ed Milliband, wrote this:
"As the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has said, if the world is to hold warming below 2C, global emissions need to peak not long after 2020 and then decline rapidly to reach net zero in the second half of this century. The weaker the action now, the more rapid and costly the reductions will need to be later. I do not want to see Britain or any country having to adopt crisis measures to halt the slide into global catastrophe because we missed this critical opportunity now. A strong coalition for a weak deal will fail us all. So this is the agreement I will work for if I am prime minister:
• Ambitious emissions targets for all countries, reviewed every five years, based on a scientific assessment of the progress towards the 2C goal.
• A goal of net zero global emissions in the second half of this century.
• Transparent, universal rules for measuring, verifying and reporting emissions with all countries adopting climate change adaptation plans.
• An equitable deal in which richer countries provide support to poorer nations in their efforts to combat climate change."
When I read this, I did try to keep on the right side of cynicism in what I thought about it – he is a politician running for office, after all, and the Greens are chasing his tail. Whilst I certainly think that whoever wrote this for him has a grasp of the issues, I am gloomy about those 2 degrees, because I do not see how "global emissions [can] peak not long after 2020". Do you?
It's all a very big ask as it means remaining within a global carbon budget of about 1 trillion tonnes – and we've already spent roughly half of this getting into the mess we're now in. The 'we', of course, is mostly the industrialised 'west' and this reality, and the resentment it causes, is part of the problem. Most crucially (and gloomily), perhaps, I cannot believe that there is a sensible global process for bringing it about. Rather, what we do have resembles a circus where NGOs seem to have as much influence as some countries. What a good job the Montreal Protocol wasn't worked on in this way. We'd likely still be waiting, bathed in all that crisp uv radiation.
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