Students march in Dhaka as they demand justice for victims arrested and killed in the recent nationwide violence [Munir Uz Zaman/AFP]. Image courtesy of Aljazeera, 3rd August 2024
In June, India’s national elections brought Narendra Modi back to power, although with fewer seats for his political party, the BJP, a hopeful push-back against the authoritarian onslaught in every sphere of social life. A month later, Bangladesh quaked the sub-continent after a student-led revolt resulted in the ousting of prime minister Sheikh Hasina following much state violence. In September, Anura Kumara Dissanayake defeated the established party candidates in Sri Lanka’s presidential election.
These political churns were the focus of a panel ‘Winds of Change? The Political Present and Futures in South Asia’ co-organised by the Centre for Development Studies, University of Bath, Bath and Centre for Global Development, University of Leeds, which took place in Leeds on the 10th October 2024.
An anti-elite and anti-corruption challenge from the youth came to the sub-continent with exceptional force with the #GoGotaGo protests in 2022 in Sri Lanka. The post-COVID economic hardships of common people were compounded by shortages in food, fuel and basic consumption items, resulting in waves of unrest by farmers and urban youth at first, and gradually engulfing a wider set of social groups across the country. As Oliver Walton, Reader in International Development, University of Bath, highlighted, what we saw in 2022 was an ‘inflection point’ of not just a balance of payments economic crisis, but linked to demands for accountability and greater social freedoms, including the rights of women and sexual minorities. The victory of Dissanayake in September’s elections and the resurgence of the left reflects that desire for a paradigm change. It is hard to determine where this will lead, however, not least because the IMF’s pressure to follow economic orthodoxy clashes with increasing demands for change.
On Bangladesh, Mathilde Maitrot, Senior Lecturer in International Development, University of Bath, reflected on how the country’s authoritarian structures combined with jobless growth weakened the social contract between the government and its younger citizens. What transformed the student movement from a focus on quotas in civil service jobs favouring freedom fighter families to a cross-class, cross-party and cross-generation revolt was the indiscriminately violent response of Sheikh Hasina’s regime. The discursive violence of the term ‘razakar’ (used pejoratively to mean traitor) by the PM to vilify protestors combined with immoral brutality of the state and paramilitary forces and party activists attacking peaceful citizens contributed to convert her government into an ‘immoral’ authoritarian regime. As we see the personalisation of the power of political leaders in South Asia, Mathilde posed an important question: can this mark the end of dynasty politics in Bangladesh?
Zaad Mahmood, Associate Professor of Politics at Presidency University, reminded the room that a quarter of the world’s population lives in South Asia, so it is impossible to understand the future of democracy without understanding South Asian politics.
Furthermore, the current moment of populism needs to be placed within the backdrop of inequality, institutional fragility, ethnic diversity, political instability, and governance issues. Thus, while the results of the recent parliamentary elections in India suggest that Modi’s personal appeal has been dented, the stranglehold of cultural nationalism remains strong. In India, this requires grappling with the complexity of Modi’s particular brand of populism, which fuses religion, authoritarianism, neoliberalism and, in fact, welfare. On the positive side, the challenges to this politics appear to arise from mobilising the politics of regionalism and more organised regional parties, assertions of caste identity, and civil society mobilisations. The strengthening of movements outside of political party structures suggests a growing desire for new forms of political participation and a disillusionment with traditional political parties and their ability to confront aggressive and assertive governments across the region.
As the chair of the panel, Lata Narayanaswamy, Associate Professor in the Politics of Global Development, University of Leeds pointed out in her opening remarks, recent political events in South Asia have to be situated in the context of capitalist development projects that have failed to deliver on their promises, especially to a bulging young and aspirational population. Thus, while we are witnessing rising authoritarianism, we are also seeing youth uprisings and unrest, and political upheavals that signal an unhappiness with a status quo that is not delivering for enough people anywhere, and nearly fast enough, whilst burning the planet in the process. Through the electoral vote and beyond, South Asians are exercising their rights and voice in societies where established social hierarchies are being reproduced through stunning economic inequalities.
A cautiously hopeful reading is that the recent elections and social and political upheavals in Bangladesh, India, and Sri Lanka present, at the very least, prick into ballooning authoritarianism in South Asia. As for change, we’ll see where the winds take us.
Authors:
Dr. Mihika Chatterjee, Co-director, Centre for Development Studies (Bath)
Dr. Geoff Goodwin, Co-director, Centre for Global Development (Leeds)
Respond
