Could Trump’s Election Bolster Reform UK’s Momentum?

Posted in: Brexit, Culture and policy, Democracy and voter preference, Global politics, Political ideologies, Racism and the far right, UK politics, US politics

Donald Trump’s 2025 re-election signals a global boon for far-right movements, reflecting transnational diffusion of conservative ideologies. In the UK during the 2024 elections, Reform UK under Nigel Farage gained momentum, splitting the right-wing vote and threatening the Conservative Party. Rising Reform popularity suggests potential ideological shifts in British politics, mirroring Trump’s influence. International far-right collaboration continues shaping democratic landscapes.

Dr Kaitlin Senk’s research focuses on women's political representation in a global context. She studies women's representation from both the perspective of elite and mass political behaviour. Additionally, she is also interested in the causes and consequences of mass partisan polarisation and how this intersects with women's representation.

On January 20, 2025, President-elect Donald Trump was sworn into office as the 47th President of the United States, only the second president in US history to serve two non-consecutive terms. However, despite his claims of an unprecedented victory, only 31.5% of the eligible voting population cast their votes for Trump with his popular vote share now falling below 50% according to the University of Florida Election Lab. While it is important not to overstate Trump’s electoral support at home, his re-election could serve as a harbinger for far-right movements in other countries, including the UK.

Notably, former Conservative Prime Minister Liz Truss and Reform UK’s leader Nigel Farage were some of the foreign leaders in attendance at events leading up to the inauguration. In a break from tradition, Trump invited heads of state and many leaders of far-right parties including Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, and the leader of Spain’s far-right Vox party, Santiago Abascal. Typically, this is a role reserved for foreign diplomats, but Trump’s break in tradition might signal a boon for these foreign far-right movements.

International Diffusion of Far-Right Ideology:

In the last few decades, we have seen a global rise in far-right movements in many democratic countries. These movements have been coupled with a rise in support for authoritarianism, where citizens no longer feel as though democracy is the most ideal form of government. Scholars point to events like Trump’s first election and the UK’s Brexit vote as catalyst events that symbolize and contribute to this international diffusion of far-right policies and ideas. Many politicians find it electorally strategic to draw on the ideas of far-right movements, amplifying anti-immigration and nationalist rhetoric. These leaders may borrow tactics used by similar far-right movements operating in other countries, particularly if they observe them being used to great success, like winning elections. In this way far-right politicians, leaders, and activists reinforce one another globally through the sharing of ideas and electoral tactics.

This is exemplified by the recent internationalization of the US’s Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC). CPAC is an annual political conference attended by Republican activists, politicians, and lobbyists to discuss top policy priorities for the party. However, in recent years the conference has been attended by foreign leaders including the UK’s Liz Truss and Nigel Farage, with the latter having attended for over a decade. Not only has the conference taken an international direction by inviting foreign speakers, but CPAC has held conferences in other countries in recent years including Hungary, Australia, and South Korea. In this respect, CPAC represents just one example of how foreign leaders from similar ideological movements may use these conferences as an opportunity to exchange political ideas and strategies, fostering the diffusion of far-right ideology.

The Rise of Reform UK

UK Conservative and far-right leaders have not been strangers to attending events like CPAC and making inroads with the US Republican party under Trump. In particular, Nigel Farage, has a long-standing relationship with President-elect Trump and there are many parallels between the two that could have real implications for British politics. Both Trump and Farage have positioned themselves as outside the political mainstream. In the US, we have seen how Trump’s MAGA movement was able to successfully infiltrate the Republican party leaving the modern-day GOP unrecognisable from the Bush era style of neoliberal conservatism. Although reviled by political elites in the early days, Trump was able to amass a groundswell of grassroots support from voters which propelled him to the helm of the Republican party, moving it further, ideologically, to the right.

Could Reform UK follow a similar trajectory to the MAGA movement? The UK’s 2024 general elections saw Farage reclaim leadership of Reform and launch a campaign for Parliament with attempts to lure disenchanted Conservative voters to his party. During this campaign it was clear to see the influence that Trump has had on Farage as he leaned into anti-immigration rhetoric, disparaged political opponents with personal attacks, and hosted ostentatious political rallies.

The outcome of the 2024 general election demonstrated that Farage’s party was able to successfully win over a share of right-wing voters who may have previously voted for the Conservative party. In fact, 80% of those who voted for Reform in 2024 had previously voted for Conservatives in 2019, indicating that Reform’s electoral presence genuinely did hurt the Conservative party at the polls. Conservative vote share decreased by a staggering 20%, affording them 121 seats, while Reform won 14.3% of the vote, yielding 5 seats in Parliament. Reform improved on its 2019 election performance where the party strategically stepped aside in key seats previously won by Conservatives, in an effort to not split the vote. No such deal between the two parties took place in the 2024 election which likely resulted in this split vote on the right resulting in electoral success for Reform at the expense of the Conservative party.

Reform has been able to maintain this momentum in popularity post-election where a recent January YouGov poll shows the party in second place (25% of voter support) behind Labour (26%), while Conservatives have fallen to third place (22%). Looking forward to future elections, 15% of those who voted for the Conservative party in 2024 would vote for Reform if a new election were held, with only 69% of the party’s 2024 vote base choosing to re-elect the party. On the other hand, Reform would only lose 4% of its 2024 voting base to the Conservatives in a future election, retaining support from 87% of its 2024 voters. This indicates a clear threat to the future of the Conservative party as they may continue to lose support amongst their voting base to a party further on the ideological right. Most alarmingly, the same YouGov poll shows that Reform’s popularity among younger voters (18-24) is rising, with 19% of this age cohort in support of Reform. And while Conservatives tend to do well with voters 65+ (35% support), Reform are encroaching on this long-standing Tory demographic (with 30% support).

What does this mean for the future of UK politics?

If Reform continues to rise in popularity, it is likely that they could continue to expand their voter base on the political right, posing a threat for Conservatives. One potential outcome is for Conservatives to consider  either  a merger between both parties to consolidate a split right-wing voting base or to invite Farage into the Conservative Party, paralleling Trump’s MAGA incursion into the Republican party. His long-standing relationship with Trump may provide a playbook for this type of party infiltration.

However, whether this will come to fruition remains to be seen. A June 2024 YouGov poll showed that most voters would be unhappy if the Conservatives were to be replaced by Reform as the main right-wing party, with 39% feeling positive or neutral about the party system change and 48% feeling negatively. Additionally, voters feel similarly negative towards a merger between the two parties either led by a Conservative party leader (37% positive/neutral; 50% negative) or by Farage himself (35% positive/neutral; 53% negative). The idea of a merger between the two parties is even divisive amongst Conservative voters, with 42% in support and 51% opposed. In fact, 53% of Conservative voters state that a merger would create a more divided party, while only 25% believe that it would promote unity.

While the British public may not support a merger between the Conservatives and Reform, Conservative voters do have a desire to move the party ideologically towards Reform. A majority (51%) of Conservative voters think the party should shift to the right in the future, while only 34% believe it should shift towards the ideological center, and only 12% want to the party to stay ideologically where it is. Given the unpopularity of a merger between the Conservatives and Reform, the most likely outcome is that we will continue to see the Conservative party drift further to the ideological right in an attempt to capture a fractured right-wing electorate. In fact, we have seen signs of this emerging with the leadership choice of Kemi Badenock, who is to the right of the party, over a more centrist candidate like James Cleverly.

Particularly if Farage continues to demagogue immigration, messaging that was popular in Trump’s 2024 campaign, we might see a similar approach from the Conservative party as they attempt to own this right-wing policy space. The saliency of immigration during the campaign period contributed to Reform’s rise in popularity much as it contributed to Trump’s electoral success. Reform was a party built on the premise of leaving the European Union and, while the issue of Brexit has largely faded from voters’ memories, Reform has been able to co-opt similar anti-immigration rhetoric which may resonate with this same voter base (Heath et al. 2024). If the Conservative party wants to regain some of its electoral support, we might see a similar rightward shift from party leadership, with a specific focus on anti-immigration sentiment.

Conclusion:

While Americans will bear the brunt of a Trump presidency, the implications of his election will have resounding international impact. Right-wing movements are gaining traction in democratic countries around the world. Part of the reason for this is the transnational diffusion of right-wing ideologies. A close relationship between the incoming Republic administration and Reform leader, Nigel Farage, is likely yet another example of this international diffusion of ideas and tactics between right-wing leaders. The consequences for British politics remain to be seen, but a rise in Reform’s popularity is something that the Conservative party will need to reconcile. If they are to succeed electorally in the future, we might expect a rightward ideological shift in an attempt to unite the right-wing electorate.

All articles posted on this blog give the views of the author(s), and not the position of the IPR, nor of the University of Bath.

Posted in: Brexit, Culture and policy, Democracy and voter preference, Global politics, Political ideologies, Racism and the far right, UK politics, US politics

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  • This article left me with some questions, What does far right mean? Indeed what does right mean when free trade and capitalism is undermined by Trump tariffs and BREXIT. Populism might seem a better label and that can appeal to left and right. (in France the so called far right party seems to appeal to ex socialist voters) So as Democrats in US ask why did we lose so too should losers in other elections. When policies do not connect with ordinary people what conclusions should we draw? How can the liberals, left or even the "far left" respond?
    Are they part of the problem and therefore part of the solution?